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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2013 23:23:50 GMT
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glandwr
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Post by glandwr on Nov 19, 2013 0:20:24 GMT
That's not QE doing that Pusser. It's the market. QE was what we fed the market to stop it putting us back to living in caves.
Dick
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2013 6:27:31 GMT
That's not QE doing that Pusser. It's the market. QE was what we fed the market to stop it putting us back to living in caves. Dick Good point and well presented. I wonder if there is a tipping point in which Joseph Public turn on their masters. There must come a point where one morning no money although we have done that bit, no one will lend to us, and we cannot pay back what we have borrowed. If we print our way out of that then MHF subs will rise to £200 pw. Even Barry may have to make a small charge of £500 a month to pay for the server. The "Future is Dark. The Future is Black" The signs are there. Many promises about what they will do and what will happen and yet they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for any new taxes that they can get away with. And if bods on benefits think things are tough now and they are of course, they ain't seen nothing yet. Unless, and I have never seen it anywhere, there is a master plan laid out that shows clearly how we will realistically progress from where we are to surplus with what would be considered a normal debt for a country. How we are going to pay for all the services we take for granted. How we are going to be able to pay the civil\military servants, and how are they going to be able to honour our state pensions. I'm open to any comment ... just hit me with it.
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peribro
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Post by peribro on Nov 20, 2013 9:23:45 GMT
There is no master plan, other than to avoid a meltdown and avoid losing the next election. The real problems start when interest rates rise since the increased cost to Government of servicing the now astronomic debt levels will have to be met from somewhere. People talk about austerity and all the cuts we are seeing now but these are only scraping the surface. Welfare costs continue to rise, more people are living longer and the tax intake isn't yet rising. Something is going to have to give and it won't be pleasant when it does. There is an argument that Labour should win the next election as that way we will get the IMF in sooner rather than later!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2013 13:42:22 GMT
There is no master plan, other than to avoid a meltdown and avoid losing the next election. The real problems start when interest rates rise since the increased cost to Government of servicing the now astronomic debt levels will have to be met from somewhere. People talk about austerity and all the cuts we are seeing now but these are only scraping the surface. Welfare costs continue to rise, more people are living longer and the tax intake isn't yet rising. Something is going to have to give and it won't be pleasant when it does. There is an argument that Labour should win the next election as that way we will get the IMF in sooner rather than later! That is indeed a very interesting point and one I have never even thought of before. In other words, the earlier we get the hurty bit the stronger we are to over come it. I like that. I shall vote Labour. Sadly of course the hurty bit is going to be on the scale of S. Ireland, Portugal and Spain and that is going to be more than hurty.
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glandwr
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Post by glandwr on Nov 20, 2013 16:48:32 GMT
There is no master plan, other than to avoid a meltdown and avoid losing the next election. The real problems start when interest rates rise since the increased cost to Government of servicing the now astronomic debt levels will have to be met from somewhere. People talk about austerity and all the cuts we are seeing now but these are only scraping the surface. Welfare costs continue to rise, more people are living longer and the tax intake isn't yet rising. Something is going to have to give and it won't be pleasant when it does. There is an argument that Labour should win the next election as that way we will get the IMF in sooner rather than later! Government debt is not astronomical. In real terms it is less than has been for most of the last 250 years. We have though got a huge debt problem but that is household and bank debt. It has been in the political interest those that want to cut the state to conflate the two things, and they have done a pretty good job of it We do also have a deficit problem. There is disagreement as to how that should be solved. Dick
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peribro
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Post by peribro on Nov 20, 2013 17:11:55 GMT
Post deleted
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peribro
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Post by peribro on Nov 20, 2013 17:30:08 GMT
There is no master plan, other than to avoid a meltdown and avoid losing the next election. The real problems start when interest rates rise since the increased cost to Government of servicing the now astronomic debt levels will have to be met from somewhere. People talk about austerity and all the cuts we are seeing now but these are only scraping the surface. Welfare costs continue to rise, more people are living longer and the tax intake isn't yet rising. Something is going to have to give and it won't be pleasant when it does. There is an argument that Labour should win the next election as that way we will get the IMF in sooner rather than later! Government debt is not astronomical. In real terms it is less than has been for most of the last 250 years. We have though got a huge debt problem but that is household and bank debt. It has been in the political interest those that want to cut the state to conflate the two things, and they have done a pretty good job of it We do also have a deficit problem. There is disagreement as to how that should be solved. Dick Do you have any authorities you can link to Dick to support your contention that debt is now less? If you look at the attached link you will see that our national debt in 2015 is forecast to amount to £1.3trillion compared to only £0.53trillion in 2008. This figure will also exclude quite a lot of "off balance sheet" items. Also as a % of GDP, our national debt is forecast to be higher in 2015 than it has been in any of the last 10 years - indeed double what it was in 2005. Compared to the periods after the Napoleonic Wars and the Second World War, our debt as a % of GDP is lower - but then we weren't using our GDP to pay for a bloated welfare state. Now we are trying to do that and to service our historically enormous debt levels. To put it into perspective, if the UK government is currently paying 0.5% interest on its current £1.16 trillion of borrowings then that is costing the country £5.8bn per annum. If interest rates rise by 1% by 2015 (which can easily happen) then the interest on our then forecast debts of £1.3 trillion will amount to £19.5bn!!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2013 17:31:56 GMT
There is no master plan, other than to avoid a meltdown and avoid losing the next election. The real problems start when interest rates rise since the increased cost to Government of servicing the now astronomic debt levels will have to be met from somewhere. People talk about austerity and all the cuts we are seeing now but these are only scraping the surface. Welfare costs continue to rise, more people are living longer and the tax intake isn't yet rising. Something is going to have to give and it won't be pleasant when it does. There is an argument that Labour should win the next election as that way we will get the IMF in sooner rather than later! Government debt is not astronomical. In real terms it is less than has been for most of the last 250 years. We have though got a huge debt problem but that is household and bank debt. It has been in the political interest those that want to cut the state to conflate the two things, and they have done a pretty good job of it We do also have a deficit problem. There is disagreement as to how that should be solved. Dick £56,000 per household feels astronomical to me. (actually so does a quid at the moment). I reckon if Dave got a payday loan for the total and then ban them we could be up and running without further ado.
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glandwr
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Post by glandwr on Nov 20, 2013 17:36:38 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2013 17:41:48 GMT
Government debt is not astronomical. In real terms it is less than has been for most of the last 250 years. We have though got a huge debt problem but that is household and bank debt. It has been in the political interest those that want to cut the state to conflate the two things, and they have done a pretty good job of it We do also have a deficit problem. There is disagreement as to how that should be solved. Dick Do you have any authorities you can link to Dick to support your contention that debt is now less? If you look at the attached link you will see that our national debt in 2015 is forecast to amount to £1.3trillion compared to only £0.53trillion in 2008. This figure will also exclude quite a lot of "off balance sheet" items. Also as a % of GDP, our national debt is forecast to be higher in 2015 than it has been in any of the last 10 years - indeed double what it was in 2005. Compared to the periods after the Napoleonic Wars and the Second World War, our debt as a % of GDP is lower - but then we weren't using our GDP to pay for a bloated welfare state. Now we are trying to do that and to service our historically enormous debt levels. To put it into perspective, if the UK government is currently paying 0.5% interest on its current £1.16 trillion of borrowings then that is costing the country £5.8bn per annum. If interest rates rise by 1% by 2015 (which can easily happen) then the interest on our then forecast debts of £1.3 trillion will amount to £19.5bn! Sadly that sounds horribly like I was thinking it would. I also think that we, in UK have not even really felt the full effects of this world depression as other countries have and\or are feeling. I have a feeling that the IMF will not be able to do much other than perhaps suggest a cull of the old, unemployed and the disabled or we could start a war which will cut down on expenses ultimately. We've started a few which are boiling up nicely now I think we need our own.
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peribro
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Post by peribro on Nov 20, 2013 23:29:36 GMT
Seems like Wikipedia is agreeing with what I was saying Dick. In particular I note the comment that "By historic peacetime standards, the national debt is large and growing rapidly, but it is currently nowhere near its peak after WW2 when it reached over 180% of GDP". If when you said that our debts weren't large, you really were comparing to post WW2, then that is an awful indictment of the terrible mess that the last government got this country into. In 1945 we owed the Americans a fortune for the assistance they had provided to us, our cities and factories were severely damaged and many of our industries had been diverted to wartime production. I don't think that things are quite that bad yet but in 1945 they couldn't get a great deal worse - wish I could say that now.
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glandwr
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Post by glandwr on Nov 21, 2013 0:15:25 GMT
It also shows that the national debt today is much less than it has been for MOST of the last 250 years. Hardly astronomical! I thank god that the Republicans were not in power in the USA or our joint reaction to the crash would have brought on a 30s style depression.
Dick
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